While some people might still joke about the reliability of weather forecasts, meteorologists are likely to nominate weather prediction as one of the great success stories of modern science – a crowning achievement of collaboration across many scientific […]
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According to Krzysztofowicz (2001), “Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest [than deterministic forecasts], enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits.” More than 10 years later, I think most people (and especially […]
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The El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is likely to affect Australia’s climate for the rest of the year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. El Nino, a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central […]
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by Simon Walker (OzEWEX) Methods to predict air temperatures over long time periods are of great interest to a range of users. Unfortunately, a new study finds that such predictions are becoming increasingly difficult. Sancho Salcedo-Sanz and his colleagues […]
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by Leanne Web and Penny Whetton (CSIRO) What will Australia look like in 2050? Even if we significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as under an intermediate scenario, Melbourne’s annual average climate could look more like that of Adelaide’s, […]
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by Michael Cavanagh (ABC Rural) The Australian research body the Climate Council has argued in its latest paper that the probability of drought will increase, and it will become more severe, because of climate change. In its report […]
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by Laurissa Smith (ABC NSW) At this time of year, certain weather forecasts give farmers a better idea of how to plan for the year ahead. Some climate models help producers manage their feed, livestock numbers, or decide […]
Read moreA brand-new online flood visualisation tool is changing the way the public and researchers alike look at floods I think it’s safe to say that we all enjoy looking at historical photos – especially when those photos are of […]
Read moresource: BoM El Niño Wrap-Up, 23 September Despite most ocean and atmospheric indicators falling short of El Niño thresholds, model outlooks and recent observations indicate that a late El Niño remains possible. The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker indicates there is at […]
Read moreby Becky Oskin, livescience Researchers have figured out a new way to predict which rivers are most at risk of dangerous flooding. To do so, they measured how much water was stored in a river basin months ahead of […]
Read moreby Oliver Millman, The Guardian A predicted 40% decline in rainfall in southern Australia could mean that the West Australian capital, Perth, will have to rely on alternative sources of water in future, a new climate change research […]
Read moresource: ARCCSS Every El Niño is different and, interestingly, the strongest El Niños aren’t necessarily the ones with the largest impacts in Australia. This is particularly true for the east coast. While some El Niño events such as 2002 caused […]
Read moreBureau of Meteorology, National rainfall outlook for July to September The Bureau of Meteorology predicts that a drier than normal season is more likely for parts of central and eastern Australia, while a wetter than normal season is more […]
Read moreDrosdowsky & Wheeler: Predicting the onset of the North Australian wet season with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Weather and Forecasting, 29, 150-161. Loveridge & Rahman: Quantifying uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models due to design losses using Monte Carlo […]
Read moreBy Bureau of Meteorology (ENSO Wrap-Up, 25 March 2014) While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau […]
Read moreby Tom Pagano (BoM) My interest in forecasts began in 1997 at the University of Arizona. I was studying how well weather models reproduced the effects of El Niño in the southwest US when a nearly unprecedented El Niño developed […]
Read more· Argüeso, D., Evans, J., Fita, L., 2013. Precipitation bias correction of very high resolution regional climate models. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10(6). · Beck, H.E. et al., 2013. Global patterns in base flow index and […]
Read moreThe new Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IFD) design rainfalls provide more accurate design rainfall estimates for Australia by combining contemporary statistical analyses and techniques with the expanded rainfall database. Recently released by the Bureau, the new IFDs are based on a more extensive database, with […]
Read moreThe Bureau’s seasonal streamflow forecasting service now has an additional 20 locations, meaning we now issue forecasts at 70 locations every month. The operational streamflow forecasting service began in December 2010 with 21 locations in Victoria and southern […]
Read moreOn Monday 8 April 2013 the Working Group on Hydrological Prediction (WG6) had its first meeting by videoconference. The accessibility, quality and sharing of data, in particular atmospheric forecast data, but also flow gauge observations and catchment boundaries, […]
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