Hydrological Prediction WG: new incubator projects and access to BoM forecasts
Research incubator projects
At OzEWEX 2015 the idea was discussed to develop small collaborative projects on the practical topics between Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and university academics. As a result of that meeting, researchers from the University of Melbourne (Dongryeol Ryu, Rory Nathan and Andrew Western) met with BoM staff (Tom Pagano, Brett Anderson, and Adam Smith). Together they have defined and are now supervising two Master’s student projects that are designed to incubate new ideas. One project is evaluating the potential flood forecasting capability of AWRA-L to compliment the currently operational rainfall-runoff model based flood forecasting system. Due to the delayed release of AWRA-L and limited access to NWP-based forecast rainfall, the student has so far been evaluating historical streamflow predictions for a number of catchments. The other project is exploring a flash flood potential index (FFPI) in Australia based on static and pseudo-static spatial information such as soil properties, slope, and vegetation information. Such a FFPI was developed in the United States and a similar index was developed at Tsinghua University in China, and these methods are tested in the Australian context. Progress will be presented at the OzEWEX 2016, where we hope it will encourage other researchers to propose additional research incubator projects. If you already have some ideas, contact Dongryeol Ryu who can help you progress it.
New access to BoM seasonal streamflow ensemble forecasts
Also at OzEWEX 2015, the presentation on BoM’s seasonal streamflow forecasting system led to a discussion about the benefit of accessing seasonal streamflow ensemble forecasts from the current operational system. As a result of that process, Paul Feikema (Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Extended Hydrologic Prediction, BoM) has kindly organised research access to the experimental Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting service. The forecasts include monthly ensemble realisations for statistical (3-month) and dynamic (1- and 3-month) forecast ensemble realisations. OzEWEX members who are interested in accessing the forecast data for research purposes are asked to contact Dongryeol Ryu with a brief description of their research idea.
8 September 2016, Dongryeol Ryu, chair Hydrological Prediction Working Group